The NFL is considered as one of the toughest sports leagues in the world to handicap and with good reason. Every week, there’s numerous examples of stakes which look like absolute locks, however for whatever reason, they fall flat and suck money out bettor’s bankrolls from the procedure.
Early in my career covering the sport betting arena, it became amazingly obvious that there’s no such thing as a lock — especially when it comes to the NFL. If you dig deep enough, however, there is a handful of areas in the NFL who have been extremely reliable through time.
ThankfullyI have access to Decades Worth Of Data and uncovered several extremely profitable gaming situations which could give us a little head start from the 2019 NFL season.
Will some of these fall flat? Yes. Can some be ongoing? Absolutely. Will the betting nerds of the internet say this guide is useless because trends provide you no predictive value? Now that right there’s a lock!
Whether you buy into tendencies or not, these are all spots that continue to pay out, so let’s dive in and explore if there is logic to back these up:
Call it a Super Bowl hangover in case you’d like, however this awful listing for Super Bowl winners at Week 1 of the subsequent season is probably the end result of these simply being overvalued according to their previous year’s result. There’s a lot of turnover from the NFL out of season-to-season and lots of early year spreads are taking a year’s information into account.
This is ordinarily a premier matchup for the opening week of the season with all the Super Bowl failure paired up with a decent opponent, also in such 19 matches, the Super Bowl loser was only an underdog four occasions. So, yeah, you have the stage, the Super Bowl runner-up is frequently overrated early in the season based on their standing from the year earlier.
As soon as you can bet itIn Week 1 of this year… or to be more specific, it is possible to fade the Rams Who’re At -3 At Carolina.
Almost the entirety of the incredible streak in primetime has been around Pete Carroll’s view while Russell Wilson has been under centre for a big chunk of these games. We can not properly measure inspiration, but it’s entirely possible that these are the kind of games that the long time head coach/QB combo”get up” for. The fact that the Seahawks are one of the most consistent groups during this decade also helps.
As for Wilson”becoming”?? for playing under the bright lights in primetime, contemplate that his career QB rating at night is 7.3 points higher than his typically late-afternoon starts. He also has a better completion percentage, a greater touchdown-to-interception ratio, and above all, a much better win percentage (81.4% vs 65%) during the night versus the late day.
Here’s a breakdown of Seattle in night games in a few specific situations:
- Night matches in the home: 15-3-2 ATS since November 2017
- Night matches as an underdog: 11-2 ATS because December 2006
- Night games in December: 10-0 ATS because December 2011
- Nighttime games vs teams with winning records: 11-3 ATS because December 2006
When you can bet it: Week 5 TNF hosting the??Rams, Week 10 MNF at San Francisco, Week 12 SNF at Philly, Week 13 MNF hosting Minnesota, Week 14 SNF in LA Rams
What an embarrassment for Bills Mafia. Some may argue that this trend doesn’t matter since it goes into well before the Brady-Belichick era, but it’s actually a better amount if you shrink it to begin in 2000 when Belichick became the Patriots’ head coach, as they have gone 14-4-1 ATS within this period.
Thus, what gives? Is this due to the Patriots’ historic domination of the team as well as the Bills’ constant turnover at head coach and QB making them among the league’s most elite skip fires? Mainly, yes.
Particular the Belichick-era, the Patriots have a ridiculous 12 double-digit victories in Buffalo, but they’ve just become a double-digit popular in three of the 19 games. They have been routinely undervalued and their league-best 60.8percent ATS covering percentage throughout the last 10 years is proof of this.?? However, here’s what , they have a winning ATS record across dozens of unique spots, that is nuts considering they’re definitely the most elite dynasty in football history.
It was actually a struggle to pick just 1 situation in this guide to highlight New England. Check out the other hot spots for the Patriots in the bottom of the article.
When to bet it: Sunday, September 29 (Week 4)
This was an especially major money maker during the 2018 season when the home team moved 10-3-2 ATS on Thursday nights. I think that it’s incredibly clear why the house team has this edge on Thursday nights, because the road team is traveling on a short week, putting them in an embarrassing position with time to prepare while still recovering from the preceding week at a hotel.
Extending this tendency even further, the home team went 71-53-6 ATS (57.3percent ) on TNF during the previous 10 decades, therefore this has a lengthy history of being a profitable place. When in doubt on Thursday nights, choose the house team.
When to wager it: I shouldn’t have to tell you this
At first look, this sounds more coincidental than anything, but Dallas has played considerably otherwise offensively on the street the previous four seasons. In 3 of the four Decades, there’s a Fairly Major disparity within their home/away scoring averages:
- 2018: 7 fewer points averaged in street games
- 2016: 5.8 fewer things averaged in street games
- 2015: 3.9 fewer things averaged in road games
We also have a similar pattern on defense with the group performing much better on this side of the ball outside of Dallas in 3 of the past four seasons:
- 2017: 6 fewer points allowed on the road
- 2016: 2.8 fewer points permitted on the Street
- 2015: 10 fewer things permitted on the Street
Going back to when this tendency starts on September 20, 2015, we have noticed Cowboys’ home games have a mean combined score of 46.10, although the average combined score within their road games falls considerably to 38.84.
Is the transition from the turf at Jerry’s World to additional playing surfaces that the difference maker here? It seems to be an obvious motive, but maybe their offensive groundwork for street games isn’t on par with their prep for home games.
In any event, keep an eye on their road totals during the season. Each matchup differs, but when their O/U amount for street games is on par with their averages at home matches, I would strongly lean with this trend continued.
It is no denying this record contrasts with the first period of Andy Reid’s tenure as head coach of the Chiefs. He has a reputation as a extraordinary game planner and good coaches tend to understand teams in their division very well.
The intriguing thing about those games is the 3 ATS loses all arrived vs the Raiders, although KC is a great 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games in Denver and San Diego/Los Angeles.
1 concern??this season is that this is the top Chiefs team coming into a season from the Andy Reid-era, so they can face greater than normal spreads, so at least early in this summer season.
Short time or recovering from a Black Friday fistfight in WalMart without any time to handicap the NFL Thanksgiving matches? Just choose the favorites and you are very likely to walk out with a gain. Including the previous two seasons if the favorite covered the spread in all six games, faves have been on a complete tear on Thanksgiving in 31-11 ATS as 2005. And this tendency isn’t only limited to the 2000s as favorites covering on Thanksgiving is a long-standing tradition as they have gone 53-29 ATS (64.5%) since 1984.
You would think house teams would have a significant edge , as laid out in the TNF fashion previously, but home teams were preferred in only more than half of those matches because 2005, and went 18-23 ATS.
Also, these matches are interchangeable with ass-kickings, like the ones we watch WalMart on Black Friday, as 32 of??51 games since 2000 were determined by double-digits.
This year’s Thanksgiving games comprise that the Bears from Detroit, the Cowboys hosting both the Bills and the Saints seeing Atlanta.
Some teams really are slow starters and require a few weeks to begin and the Saints are on peak of the listing of early-season underperformers.
Back in 2018, we watched them choke at Week 1 and shed to the Bucs as a 10-point favored at home. The next week, in a different game, they hardly snuck from the Hugh Jackson and Tyrod Taylor-led Browns, winning by three as a 9.5-point favourite. Then they proceeded to cover the spread nine straight games after the rough start.
In 2017, we saw them fail to pay in the first fourteen days, then go on to pay the spread from six of their next seven games. In 2016they divide the first two, then coated five of the next six. In 2015they didn’t pay in their first two games, then coated in four of their next five.
The main point is that Sean Peyton has done a poor job at getting off to a fantastic start and Drew Brees hasn’t been sharp early in seasons, proven by his own livelihood September QB evaluation of 94.7 which is his lowest of any month.
When to bet itWith the Saints favored by a touchdown in Week 1 MNF Vs The Texans, and a Week 2 rematch of last season’s NFC Title game where bettors are sure to play-up the payback angle, so these may be prime places to once again fade New Orleans in early season games.
Pittsburgh has been playing down to weaker??competition for nearly two decades and has been especially bad in this spot recently, moving 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points because the beginning of this 2017 season. Most importantly, they have been dreadful as a double-digit street favorite in this period, going 1-10 ATS.
Mike Tomlin took over as Steelers head coach in 2007 so many of this inefficiency as a big favorite is on his view. They’ve still been an outright winner in almost all of these matches, moving 22-5 beneath Tomlin, however they clearly underestimate poorer competitors, making them a fantastic fade as a huge favorite.
Pittsburgh will not have as many chances as a double preferred this year, especially now that the Browns are somewhat more competitive — they have been a double-digit favorite eight times vs the Browns at Tomlin’s tenure as head coach but they can find themselves as a enormous favorite in Season 4 at home to the Bengals and hosting the Dolphins in Week 8.
Thus, besides usually sucking the past decade, another thing these teams have in common is acting in a very different climate. It is possibly the most obvious issue to handicap, with warm weather clubs playing outside of the comfort zones in the colder weather months, but it seems as if oddsmakers aren’t accounting enough because of this.
Miami is the most extreme case from those three Florida teams in this area because of playing in a branch with all the teams which are strongly affected by winter conditions. Going all of the way back to 1992, they are just 3-10 ATS in New England in December and January games. Since 1990, they’re 4-9-1 ATS in Buffalo in these months, while they’ve managed to move 4-3 ATS in the Jets since 1996.
There is a little bit of grey area here since I did not look at weather conditions for every one of the teams in those matches, however warm-weather city clubs who perform outdoors are usually an awful stake when playing in cold weather.
Since 2014, there’s been 82 matches played with cold temperatures below 32??F (0?? C). Nineteen of these games included warm-weather city teams who play outside (Jacksonville, Miami, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Tampa Bay, Oakland and San Francisco) and they went 6-13 ATS.
Here’s just another piece of reliable betting spots Through the Years:
- Patriots: 35-14??ATS??at home within their last 49 matches
- Patriots: 16-5-1 ATS following a loss as October 13, 2013
- Patriots: 11-4-2 in divisional home games since October 2013
- Raiders: 4-21 SU in last 25 matches with 1 PM ET begin times
- Colts: 1-10 ATS in last their 11 Week 1 games
- Browns: 2-19 SU in their last 21 in Pittsburgh
- Saints vs Bucs: UNDER at 15 of last 21 matchups
- Lions vs Vikings: UNDER in 16 of last 22 matchups
- Seahawks: 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs 49ers
- Panthers: 19-5-1 ATS after a road loss
- London Games: Favorite is 15-9 ATS
- Texans: 6-18-1 ATS at nighttime matches because 2012
- Redskins: 5-16 ATS in nighttime matches since 2013
- Broncos: 75-20-2 SU at home at September since 1970
- Titans:??7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 off-road games
For more info like this every week during the NFL season, Read Me On Twitter. Excellent luck this season, also as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAER!

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