From a fan’s standpoint, UFC 231 is a wonderful event. In terms of betting opportunities, I’m feeling lukewarm. But here are my hints of those fights that I’m looking to play. Gilbert Burns vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Decorated jiu-jitsu winner and second degree black belt, Gilbert Burns, has been working on his striking in recent years. Training beneath famed Dutch kickboxer, Henri Hooft, Burns is currently comfortable wherever the battle occurs.
Together with his newfound striking skills, Burns scored emphatic knockout victories over Jason Saggo and Dan Moret. Regrettably, opting to bang Dan Hooker proved to be devastating and Burns was violently finished in his final struggle. I lost money believing Burns would grapple — oh well!
While a solid striker, Burns takes risks defensively and heaps up on his shots. Dan Hooker is the kind of fighter that can capitalize on defensive lapses — but I am not sure Olivier Aubin-Mercier is.
Coming out of a judo background, Aubin-Mercier is immensely strong in the clinch and heavy from top position. While he’s much more proficient on the toes than he was, Aubin-Mercier still lacks the fluidity of someone that’s a natural striker. He’s light on his toes, out and in with his movement and slightly tentative — but is accurate when he fires.
While Aubin-Mercier is a jiu-jitsu brown belt, I doubt he would like to go to the mat with Burns. Even the muscle-bound human blanket, Michel Prazeres, refused to dive to the guard of Gilbert Burns — which speaks volumes.
In his last battle, Aubin-Mercier looked a step behind in the scrambles from Alexander Hernandez and I would expect a master of body manipulation such as Gilbert Burns to control on the mat too (although I wish there was more footage of Burns fighting his back to make a better assessment).
I think the striking exchanges will be aggressive, but I provide Burns a small edge. Stylistically, this seems tricky for Aubin-Mercier and that I can not predict his strategy. Maybe the Canadian will try and restrain his opponent against the weapon, but without shooting takedowns?
I really do believe Aubin-Mercier is the better athlete and certainly has the superior cardio. However, I will take my chances with Gilbert Burns as a +120 underdog as I believe he must be a slight favorite.
Elias Theodorou vs. Eryk Anders
At a middleweight showdown between two fighters with contrasting designs (and personalities), Eryk Anders takes on Elias Theodorou.
A fantastic athletic, Anders is volatile yet has great cardio. Fighting from the southpaw stance, Anders packs enormous electricity in his left hand but in my view, goes head hunting a bit too much. In his last bout, Thiago Santos was prepared for the primary weapon of Anders — which restricted his offensive success.

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